--- title: "Winning & Losing Trades" canonical: https://thestrat.ai/docs/winning-losing-trades/ updated: 2026-09-23 author: Alex Sopa (AlexsOptions) source: TheStrat docs (https://thestrat.ai/docs/) --- Tools for AI agents: https://mcp.thestrat.ai — see https://thestrat.ai/agents/ # Winning & Losing Trades By [Alex Sopa (AlexsOptions)](https://thestrat.ai/docs/alex-sopa/) · Updated September 23, 2026 **Definition** From Rob’s education: a **winning position** looks like a 2 in your favor, a 3 in your favor, and [full timeframe continuity](https://thestrat.ai/docs/full-timeframe-continuity/) in your favor. A **losing position** looks like getting chopped up during a [scenario 1](https://thestrat.ai/docs/price-only-trades-in-3-ways/), a 2 against you, a 2 going 3 against you, and FTFC against you. Learn the shapes and you can read any open trade at a glance. Every trade you will ever have on resolves into one of these pictures. This page is about recognizing which picture you are in while it is still cheap to act on it. ## Losing positions ### 1. Chopped up during a scenario 1 A 1 is equilibrium: nothing broke, so there is nothing to follow through on. Trade inside it and the range takes your entry right back: in and out inside the same bar, with the [motherbar](https://thestrat.ai/docs/motherbar-problems/)’s high and low untouched above and below you. [Figure: Two tickets and two stop-outs inside the same bar. The bar is a 1: the motherbar’s high and low mark the range that has to give, and neither of them broke.] ### 2. A 2 against you You bought a dip, and then the prior bar’s low broke. The bar is a 2d: directional evidence against you, and [price must trade in the direction of the most 2s](https://thestrat.ai/docs/price-trades-in-the-direction-of-the-most-2s/). It keeps going and takes the stop. [Figure: Buying the dip just above the prior bar’s low, then the low breaks: a 2d. The high never takes 103.00, so this is a clean 2d and not a 3, and a 2 against you does not negotiate.] ### 3. A 2 going 3 against you You bought a green 2u breakout. Then it flipped red, and a 2u trading red is a **2 going 3**: the rejection shows in the color first, and it counts toward the other direction. The 3 completes at the prior bar’s low, exactly where your stop was. [Figure: The 2u breaks out green, trades back under its own open (the 2 going 3) and takes the stop. Then it completes the 3 through the prior bar’s low.] ### 4. FTFC against you This is the worst one. You shorted a 60-minute [2u-2d reversal](https://thestrat.ai/docs/2-2-reversal/), a legitimate signal, but then price reclaimed the day open, the week open, and the month open: [full timeframe continuity](https://thestrat.ai/docs/full-timeframe-continuity/) up, every participation group and every algorithm against the position. On the tape below (real data, MU, June 2026) the short triggers at 910.00 with the stop at the 2u’s high, 957.48. The stop is taken on Thursday afternoon, and that is the cheap part. Price keeps going through the week open, then the month open, and by Monday it has gapped to 1055.99: the signal was fine, the continuity was not. [Figure: MU, Friday June 12 2026 into Monday, on all four timeframes. A few hours into Friday the 60-minute prints a 2u and the next hour takes its low, so the short goes on at 995.00 with the stop at the high of the day. It works into the close, but the day and the week were green underneath it, and Monday opens at 1055.99, straight through the stop.] ## Winning positions ### 1. 2s in your favor You buy the break of the prior high and the 2s keep printing your way: 2u, 2u, 2u. Each new break re-confirms the trade. There is nothing to manage except [the adds](https://thestrat.ai/docs/adding-to-winners/). [Figure: Buy the trigger, and the evidence keeps arriving: 2u after 2u after 2u: the most 2s pointing your way, and the stop never threatened.] ### 2. A 3 in your favor The bar takes the prior low but trades green. A 2d trading green is a failed break with the sellers trapped below, and it counts toward up. You buy it, and the bar completes the 3 through the prior high: both sides fought, your side won. [Figure: Buy the reclaim of the failed 2d (the sellers below are trapped), and the bar completes a 3 through the prior high: the whole range resolved in your favor.] ### 3. FTFC in your favor This is the best one. On the tape below (real data, MU weekly, spring 2026), two 2d weeks pull back into the March low and the second closes green. You buy the [2d-2u weekly reversal](https://thestrat.ai/docs/2-2-reversal/) at 377.89, and continuity swings behind you across four timeframes: the week, the month, the quarter, and the year all green. Five straight 2u weeks, 373 to 747. [Figure: MU, spring 2026, on all four timeframes. The green 2d week’s high, 377.89, is the trigger and the stop sits just under the entry week’s low. April opens a fresh month and a fresh quarter, and week, month, quarter and year run green together for five straight 2u weeks.] ## The read **Rule:** name the picture you are in, out loud. “I am long and this bar is a 2d” is a different trade than “I am long and this bar is a 2u”, even at the same price. The losing shapes all share one thing: the evidence stopped being yours. The winning shapes all share the opposite. Act on the shape, not on the P&L (see the [trade checklist](https://thestrat.ai/docs/trade-checklist/) and [stop-losses](https://thestrat.ai/docs/stop-losses/)). **Related:** [Full Timeframe Continuity](https://thestrat.ai/docs/full-timeframe-continuity/) · [Adding to Winners](https://thestrat.ai/docs/adding-to-winners/) · [Stop-Losses](https://thestrat.ai/docs/stop-losses/) · [Trade Checklist](https://thestrat.ai/docs/trade-checklist/) · [Exhaustion Risk](https://thestrat.ai/docs/exhaustion-risk/) · [Why You Keep Losing Trades](https://thestrat.ai/docs/why-you-keep-losing-trades/) **Back to:** [Docs home →](https://thestrat.ai/docs/) TheStrat was developed by Rob Smith. These docs are written by Alex Sopa (AlexsOptions) and quote his teaching.